Analisis Faktor Ekonomi Makro Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (Studi Kasus Kota Batang)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13883459Keywords:
PNBP, macroeconomics, VAR-VECM, GRDP, inflation, interest ratesAbstract
This research analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) in Batang City in the 2020-2023 period. Using monthly data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency, this research applies the Vector Autoregression-Vector Error Correction Model (VAR-VECM) method to see the short-term and long-term relationship between PNBP and variables such as Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. The research results show that macroeconomic factors significantly influence PNBP in the long term, although the influence is not visible in the short term. Policymakers need to pay attention to a combination of external and internal factors, such as fiscal and monetary policies, to optimize state revenues from non-tax sources in the future. This research also emphasizes the importance of sustainable policy planning to anticipate the long-term impact of global economic fluctuations on PNBP.
References
Afonso, J. R., Araújo, E. C., & Fajardo, B. G. (2016). The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Brazilian Economy: Understanding Recent Institutional Reforms and Economic Changes. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 62, 41–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2016.07.005
Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ Profitability and Financial Soundness Indicators: A Macro-level Investigation in Emerging Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 203–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00551-1
Arifin, B., Wicaksono, E., Tenrini, R. H., Wardhana, I. W., Setiawan, H., Damayanty, S. A., Solikin, A., Suhendra, M., Saputra, A. H., Ariutama, G. A., Djunedi, P., Rahman, A. B., & Handoko, R. (2020). Village Fund, Village-Owned-Enterprises, and Employment: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Rural Studies, 79, 382–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.08.052
Armstrong, J., Skilling, H., & Yao, F. (2019). Loan-to-value Ratio Restrictions and House Prices: Micro Evidence from New Zealand. Journal of Housing Economics, 44, 88–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2019.02.002
Arora, R. U. (2018). Financial Sector Development and Smart cities: The Indian Case. Sustainable Cities and Society, 42, 52–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.06.013
Arun, T., & Kamath, R. (2015). Financial Inclusion: Policies and Practices. IIMB Management Review, 27(4), 267–287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2015.09.004
Berset, S., Huber, M., & Schelker, M. (2022). The Fiscal Response to Revenue Shocks. International Tax and Public Finance, 30(3), 814–848. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-022-09727-z
Boateng, A., Hua, X., Uddin, M., & Du, M. (2014). Home Country Macroeconomic factors on outward Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from the UK. Research in International Business and Finance, 30(1), 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2013.08.001
Byström, H. (2014). The Impact of Currency Movements on Asset Value Correlations. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 31(1), 178–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.03.014
Caporale, G. M., & Zekokh, T. (2019). Modelling Volatility of Cryptocurrencies Using Markov-Switching GARCH Models. Research in International Business and Finance, 48, 143–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.12.009
Chadwick, M. G. (2018). Effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential shocks on consumer credit growth and volatility in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 18(2), 69–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2018.03.001
Chkili, W., & Nguyen, D. K. (2014). Exchange Rate Movements and Stock Market Returns in a Regime-switching Environment: Evidence for BRICS Countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 31, 46–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2013.11.007
Cieslak, A., & Schrimpf, A. (2019). Non-monetary News in Central Bank Communication. Journal of International Economics, 118, 293–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.012
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
Dass, N., Nanda, V., & Wang, Q. (2013). Allocation of Decision Rights and the Investment Strategy of Mutual Funds. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(1), 254–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.06.004
Egbunike, F. C., Emudainohwo, O. B., & Gunardi, A. (2018). Tax Revenue and Economic Growth: A Study of Nigeria and Ghana. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(2), 213–220. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7341
Enders, W. (2014). Applied Econometric Time Series. Wiley.
Erlando, A., Riyanto, F. D., & Masakazu, S. (2020). Financial Inclusion, Economic Growth, and Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Eastern Indonesia. Heliyon, 6(10), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05235
Galadima, M. D., & Aminu, A. W. (2019). Shocks Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Natural Gas Consumption in Nigeria: Structural VAR with sign restrictions. Energy Policy, 125, 135–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.021
Ghosh, A. (2017). How do Derivative Securities Affect Bank Risk and Profitability?: Evidence from the US Commercial Banking Industry. Journal of Risk Finance, 18(2), 186–213. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-09-2016-0116
Gnangnon, S. K. (2022). Tax Revenue Instability and Tax Revenue in Developed and Developing Countries. Applied Economic Analysis, 30(88), 18–37. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-09-2020-0133
Guzman, M., Ocampo, J. A., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Real Exchange Rate Policies for Economic Development. World Development, 110, 51–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.017
Halkos, G., Moll de Alba, J., & Todorov, V. (2021). Analyzing Manufacturing Sector and Selected Development Challenges: A Panel Data Analysis. Energy, 235, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121253
Hartzmark, S. M. (2016). Economic Uncertainty and Interest Rates. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 6(2), 179–220. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raw004
Iswahyudi, H. (2019). Do Tax Structures Affect Indonesia Economic Growth? Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 33(3), 216–242. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.29033
Jiao, Y. (2010). Stakeholder Welfare and Firm Value. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(10), 2549–2561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.04.013
Khurshid, N. (2023). Does the Causality between Environmental Sustainability, Non-renewable Energy Consumption, Geopolitical Risks, and Trade Liberalization Matter for Pakistan? Evidence from VECM Analysis. Heliyon, 9(11), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21444
Kudrin, A., & Gurvich, E. (2015). A New Growth Model for the Russian Economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 1(1), 30–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.05.002
Metelli, L., & Natoli, F. (2021). The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach. IMF Econ Rev, 69(2), 325–256. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-021-00136-6
Mogues, T., & Olofinbiyi, T. (2020). Budgetary influence under information asymmetries: Evidence from Nigeria’s subnational agricultural investments. World Development, 129, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104902
Morrissey, O., Von Haldenwang, C., Von Schiller, A., Ivanyna, M., & Bordon, I. (2016). Tax Revenue Performance and Vulnerability in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Studies, 52(12), 1689–1703. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1153071
Moya-martínez, P., Ferrer-lape, R., & Escribano-sotos, F. (2014). Interest Rate Changes and Stock Returns in Spain: A Wavelet Analysis. BRQ Business Research Quarterly, 18(2), 95–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brq.2014.07.004
Nandy, M. (2020). Is There Any Impact of R&D on Financial Performance? Evidence from Indian Pharmaceutical Companies. FIIB Business Review, 9(4), 319–334. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520981816
Nguyen, H. T., & Darsono, S. N. A. C. (2022). The Impacts of Tax Revenue and Investment on the Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries. Journal of Accounting and Investment, 23(1), 128–146. https://doi.org/10.18196/jai.v23i1.13270
Nugraha, N. A. (2017). The Adjustment of Non-Taxable Income in Indonesia: Economic and Political Feasability. Jurnal Pajak Indonesia2, 1(2), 9–13.
Prasasti, S. R., & Ekananda, M. (2023). Does Fiscal Policy Matter? A Study on Economic Crises in Indonesia. Jejak, 16(1), 13–27. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v16i1.37532
Rahman, M. M., Zheng, C., Ashraf, B. N., & Rahman, M. M. (2018). Capital Requirements, The Cost of Financial Intermediation and Bank Risk-taking : Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 488–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.119
Raza, M. Y., Hasan, M. M., & Chen, Y. (2023). Role of Economic Growth, Urbanization and Energy Consumption on Climate Change in Bangladesh. Energy Strategy Reviews, 47, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101088
Roy, S., & Kemme, D. (2020). The Run-up to the Global Financial Crisis: A Longer Historical View of Financial Liberalization, Capital Inflows, and Asset Bubbles. International Review of Financial Analysis, 69, 1–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101377
Salehi, M., Tarighi, H., & Rezanezhad, M. (2019). Empirical Study on the Effective Factors of Social Responsibility Disclosure of Iranian Companies. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 26(1), 34–55. https://doi.org/10.1108/jabes-06-2018-0028
Salisu, A. A., Raheem, I. D., & Ndako, U. B. (2020). The Inflation Hedging Properties of Gold, Stocks and Real Estate: A Comparative Analysis. Resources Policy, 66, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101605
Shen, W., Yang, S. C. S., & Zanna, L. F. (2018). Government Spending Effects in Low-income Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 133, 201–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.02.005
Sheridan, B. J. (2014). Manufacturing Exports and Growth: When is a Developing Country Ready to Transition from Primary Exports to Manufacturing Exports? Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.06.002
Sonaglio, C. M., Campos, A. C., & Braga, M. J. (2016). Effects of Interest and Exchange Rate Policies on Brazilian Exports. EconomiA, 17(1), 77–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2016.01.002
Su, C. W., Cai, X. Y., Qin, M., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021). Can Bank Credit Withstand Falling House Price in China? International Review of Economics and Finance, 71, 257–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.09.013
Susanto, W., & Sugianto, C. (2019). The Structure of Regional Original Revenue and Its Effect on Economic Growth: Facts from Regencies and Cities in Central Jawa. The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 3(1), 68–102. https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v3i1.59
Tan, Y. (2016). The Impacts of Risk and Competition on Bank Profitability in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 40, 85–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.09.003
Walker, C. C., Druckman, A., & Jackson, T. (2021). Welfare Systems without Economic Growth: A Review of the Challenges and Next Steps for the Field. Ecological Economics, 186, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107066
Were, M., & Wambua, J. (2014). What Factors Drive Interest Rate Spread of Commercial Banks? Empirical Evidence from Kenya. Review of Development Finance, 4(2), 73–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2014.05.005
Zhang, X., & Li, J. (2018). Credit and Market Risks Measurement in Carbon Financing for Chinese Banks. Energy Economics, 76, 549–557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.036
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Novi Dhian Utami, Noor Syaifudin, Shine Pintor Siolemba Patiro
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.